Most of us moved to or stayed in the Upstate because of what makes it special – rolling hills, pristine forests, clean streams, and open spaces where kids can explore. We have the power to ensure those places still exist in 2100, but only if we act intentionally now.
Without strategic planning, “business as usual” development could transform our region beyond recognition. But what if we could see exactly what our choices today will mean for the landscapes we love? What if we could align our development decisions with our shared values and preserve what makes the Upstate home? The Shi Institute leveraged FORE-SCE models from the USGS to build an interactive application that shows land use changes for every year until 2100 under two different choice scenarios .
What We Did
At the request of Upstate Forever, we accessed advanced computer models to map exactly what different development scenarios could mean for our natural areas over the next 80 years. Think of the models as a sophisticated forecasting system that shows how various choices – from local zoning decisions to regional conservation efforts – play out across the landscape over time.
We focused on four different scenarios representing different paths our region might take:
- Rapid economic growth with minimal environmental consideration
- Regional development focused on local priorities
- Global sustainability with broad environmental goals
- Local sustainability emphasizing community-based conservation
Each scenario represents real choices we face as communities – choices about where and how we grow, what we prioritize, and how we balance development with conservation.
What We Found
The differences between scenarios are dramatic.
Strategic conservation doesn’t just preserve isolated patches of green space – it maintains connected networks of natural areas that support wildlife, clean our water, and provide the recreational opportunities that define our quality of life.
What Changes If We Act
When communities choose smarter development patterns and actively support conservation efforts, the Upstate of 2100 can look remarkably like the region we love today – but better planned and more resilient.
You can help preserve our natural heritage by:
- Supporting conservation organizations like Upstate Forever
- Advocating for higher-density development that preserves open space
- Participating in local planning processes
- Choosing leaders who prioritize both economic growth and environmental stewardship
The future of our landscape isn’t something that happens to us – it’s something we create through the choices we make today. The question isn’t whether the Upstate will change, but whether we’ll guide that change intentionally.
This research demonstrates the Shi Institute’s capabilities in advanced spatial analysis, large dataset management, client-focused research design, and interactive web-based storytelling.